Expansive thinking

How long-term should your thinking be?

At the end of the Napoleonic Wars, the Swedish Crown wanted to ‘future-proof’ itself and asked a simple question: “Where can we plant trees for future ship production?”

The trees in question were oaks, and the delegation in charge of finding the right spot settled on an island, Visingsö, in the middle of large lake. The conditions were perfect for growing tall, straight trees, and a planting regime began. The Navy planted 300,000 trees in 10 years.

But, guess what?

Naval technology evolved before the trees matured. Wooden boats disappeared, and the oaks kept growing. The trees reached full size at the beginning of the 20th century and, while they didn’t end up as ship hulls, decks and masts, the trees are harvested for flooring, veneers, furniture, and even whiskey barrels.

Most are still there, and you can even visit and take a look at hundreds of hectares of enormous, stately, and very straight trees.

Question: On what issues do you have to think way further in advance than most people do?

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What price on demand?

My 13yo son, Jasper, took me to a shrine. It was a shop inside a central city mall which sold mostly sneakers and t-shirts. The sneakers were many hundreds of dollars; the t-shirts the same. And, the shrine was packed. Mostly with kids (to me, that’s people under 25). Many of them sneakerheads.

My inner anthropologist came out immediately, and I watched the hordes intently, as they scanned the shelves and racks, and listened to them talking amongst themselves about the merch. They seemed oblivious to the prices — but I wasn’t.

Jasper patiently explained why one sneaker sells for $200, but another (seemingly similar) pair is $700.

“It’s demand-based pricing, Dad”, he said. “They release them at the same price, and if within hours they go off, the price jumps. That’s how they know how high to go”.

And, indeed, there were sneakers well into four figures.

But, it got me thinking. After all, airlines vary prices not just seasonally but by the part of the plane you sit in (even in the same class). Uber charges surge prices when riders exceed drivers. So, why not sneakers and t-shirts?

Question: What do you sell that has a variable demand curve and therefore could accommodate variable pricing?

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Learning to learn

I started learning tennis just six months ago, and have consistently had 2-3 coaching sessions a week all year. In addition, I’ve practised solo a bit, and played games with maybe a half dozen people (I lost to all but one). I’ve dipped into a few YouTube videos. Watched the French Open finals earlier this month. And, even read one book about tennis.

But, of all of this, what’s the most powerful way for me to learn quickly?

It’s modelling.

This is described in a classic of the sports psychology genre: Timothy Gallwey’s “The Inner Game of Tennis”. Published a lifetime ago (in 1970), it skyrocketed its author to fame with his unconventional, even disruptive, advice of “Let your body do what it knows how to do” and “Don’t listen to me, watch me a few times, and then do your thing”.

Modelling is an extremely powerful method by which we all learn throughout our lives, but which is largely neglected in most forms of pedagogy: schools don’t use it, neither does most professional development. Modelling is the reason why children of migrants don’t speak with the accents of their parents. Yet, traditionally, it’s how vocational skills have been taught to apprentices for centuries: “Watch me once, do it twice”.

The technique is simple, if you want to do it consciously as opposed to unconsciously. Choose a success model: that is, select someone with skills you would like to explore and improve. Watch them, or visualise them performing. Then, imagine (visually, or kinaesthetically) floating into their body. Float back into your own body. Replicate. Then practice the skill without concern for ‘doing it well’.

You can watch Gallwey trying this out on a middle-aged woman who’s never held a tennis racquet and who, after ten minutes, is hitting decent shots.

Question: What skills would you like to learn through modelling an expert?

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And, spend the next 7 days thinking long-term, maybe 700, or 7,000, or even 70,000 days.

See you then,

Andrew.